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The future is exciting.
Definitely it is worth looking forward to the future. I suppose some
people just can’t bring themselves to see a bright future. Maybe they
fear what will happen. Is predicting the future impossible? It
probably is. Certainly to get an exact picture is impossible.
However there is some advantage to trying to predict what will happen in the
future. There is a saying that goes, “The future is what you make of
it”. So maybe predicting the future will help to make it happen.
In my experience it is certainly true that if I expect bad things to happen they
most likely will. When I expect good things to happen they most often also
come true. It may seem a little gutsy to attempt a prediction.
However I will say it has worked out for me well so far.
Before I go to the future let me
start with a little history. I started working with personal computers in
1984. At that time there were two PC operating systems with popularity,
CPM and MS-DOS. I used both but preferred MS-DOS. When it came time
to pick a network operating system I reviewed the choices and selected Novell,
they eventually captured 70% of the market a few years later. I was
excited by and played with Windows years before it’s popular consumer release
of 3.0. Even though I had learned spreadsheets on Lotus 1-2-3 I abandoned
that for Excel for Windows soon after it was released. (Although Lotus was
the first spreadsheet I used I did design a few sheets for a company using
VisiCalc, which is credited as the first spreadsheet. VisiCalc did not
capture my attention however.). WordPerfect was my major downfall. I
had a hard time abandoning it. Even after Word for Windows was out I clung
to the hope that WordPerfect for Windows would be a wonderful product.
Once WordPerfect for Windows was released I was very disappointed and moved
completely into the Microsoft Office Suite of products. I began learning
databases with Paradox, however soon after I started a project in Paradox
Microsoft Access became available. I closed my Paradox manual and
haven’t opened it again since. Eventually I abandoned my love of Novell
and started suggesting Windows NT for my customers and have been working with it
and it's current release Windows 2000 since.
My choices in computer technology
have obviously worked out for me. But the choices I made also appear to
have worked out for a lot of other people as well. I have thought for some
time about writing articles that predict a bright future of information
technology. I sat down to write down some major topics that I believe will
become important. I came up with about a years worth of articles. Of
course as the year progresses the list may need to be changed or added to but
the following are some of my ideas for articles. Because of the rapid
changes in the field it is important that everyone keep up with what is
happening. Even though many people now work with computers and know the
basics I believe adequate training on computer software is missing today.
I work with a lot of people on their computers and almost everybody I know could
benefit from learning more about the programs on their computer. (Myself
included) The programs on our computers can do so much; there is tons of
personal productivity locked up behind what we do not know our programs can do.
In many cases an additional program or feature in a program could be the key to
many corporate profits. Many companies have lots of data without any
current way of delivering that data to employees that could use it to make the
organization soar. Certainly there is a huge benefit to the owners of
businesses in potential revenues.
I don’t know however if this is
a corporate responsibility or an individual responsibility. I think an
individual would be quite lucky to have a company that believes in providing
this as a benefit in their job. But like a lot of other issues in society
when it comes right down to it the individual is probably ultimately
responsible. Training is something that will benefit the individual and
should be committed to by the person it will most benefit. For example
exercise is something that is extremely beneficial to an individual it will
improve the quality of their life. It can provide for an active lifestyle
and long life. It can also benefit the employer by reduced number of sick
days and more energetic workers. Almost nobody would deny the benefits to
individuals, companies, families and society at large if people regularly
exercise. It is great when a company recognizes this and provides health
club memberships, or on-site work out rooms but the ultimate responsibility is
in the hands of the individual. I think learning is like that as well.
It has many benefits but individuals need to take the responsibility for their
own personal education. Perhaps this issue goes way beyond just the world
of information technology but I believe it should not be ignored because of the
developments in the world of information technology. Because the world is
now changing constantly people need to become immersed in information and seek
out new information. Imagine what our world would be like if people took
responsibly for learning new things constantly. Throw in to that exercise,
proper diet and development of our individual creativity and I don’t think you
can image what is possible. Actually even if you commit to improving each
of these things in your own life I think your life will change, at least I’m
hoping so. The future of the world’s economy belongs to the information
worker.
This leads to the next area I
believe is the future of information technology. In numerous articles
through out the Internet, people say Microsoft has a new chant “Software is
Service”. What could this possibly mean? I believe it relates to
how Microsoft views us using their products in future releases. How are we
going to use computers in the future? As I said just a bit ago we all need
to learn to use the programs we have on our computers. Many people only
view their computers as devices to create and view documents. We
write letters and memos in Word, we present financial information in Excel and
we communicate basically in document form in emails. The future however is
in presenting information. That wealth of data in a company that in some
cases could become a product of the company on it’s own. Information
workers will need to become able to communicate in relevant dynamic data not
just static words or numbers. In fact in the future (maybe even now for
some of you) an important worker in your business may actually be a specialized
program designed to give you that information. Some of these programs will
be major programs but some will also just be small applications. Some will
also be services you subscribe to. Check what Microsoft is working on, at
least for the present that is how the industry will go.
The future or actually the
present is that we now have one big happy network in the world. This is
already the case; the future is really the realization and exploitation of that
network by corporate America and individuals. Yes that means a new
society, which will have all the aspects of a physical society. Crime and
corruption will be a part of it. There will also be many people doing very
good things with this network. I know of an organization that has had the
goal of building “the greatest caring network the world has ever seen”.
This was a goal before the Internet but due to the Internet the goal has
expanded exponentially. Many other things will expand as well.
Opportunities exist that did not in the recent past. We have seen that
people can connect for not so healthy purposes such as pornography, but we will
also see people connect for wonderful purposes. As a good capitalist I
think that it is important to build with a profit motive as historically that
has proven to be one of the best ways mankind can accomplish goals.
Along with a global network and
tied to almost every other issue I see in the future is data. A fairly big
revolution occurred with the introduction of what is called Open Database
Connectivity (ODBC). Now one program can connect with another or custom
applications can be written with simple tools such as Microsoft Access. I
have written a number of programs using this tool and have often connected to
another data source. The future will be in not just connecting to the data
but connecting to the rules associated with the data. When I connect to an
accounting application’s data I can often put in data that the program itself
would not allow. This is what I mean by “rules”. We usually have
to find out the appropriate data to allow and make sure we control that.
However in the future following current models of layered programming we will
see an ability to connect to the “rules” of a program making it even easier
to create customizations. This is a major component of a Microsoft idea
called Web Services and very much behind what they call .NET. There are
competing ideas to the Microsoft ideals and is one reason Microsoft considers
themselves vulnerable and not willing to give up certain aspects of their
operating system such as browser functionality. As I hinted at before
information can become a product of a company and use of Web Services is one of
the key ways that will become possible. Some large organizations such as
UPS and General Motors are already operating with some of these concepts.
How will your organization do the same? Maybe more importantly how are
your competitors planning to introduce Web Services to your customers?
We have just begun the wired
world, but right around the corner is the un-wired world. Each idea I am
bringing up compounds on the other. Through Web Services and delivering
data as a product to the global network we will see that you do not have to be
wired to anything. You do not even have to be sitting still; that will
excite all of us who were believed to be Hyperactive at youth. Literally
you will be able to control your world from the palm of your hand.
Personal Digital Assistants are at an infant stage as are many of the concepts I
have brought up. (Most of these ideas already exist the only question is
when will they become main stream?) Forget about just using them to keep
your calendar and contact list. Forget about syncing to your desktop
computer. How about replacing your desktop computer? You bet, no
problem. In the years ahead some people will opt to not use a traditional
computer at all. You will quite literally be able to do everything you can
do now and more from the small device you can carry in your pocket.
Don’t believe me? How about a bet?
Ok so here is the “rub” as
they say, there is a major obstacle between now as many of these concepts
currently exist and an explosion of these concepts and products. The major
issue is security. We will not see it explode until people feel secure.
I say, “feel secure” because security is a concept that is very rarely a
reality. After all are you secure when you go to sleep in your house?
What is really between you and the outdoors? Many of us only have a lock
on our door, easily broken into by a majority of criminals. Some have
alarm systems that take only a little more sophistication to get past.
Gated communities insure that not just anybody can get near your house. Of
course some houses are also protected by active measures called guards.
All these concepts from the physical world have similar concepts in the
information world. A big difference between them is that in the physical
world you can implement a solution and that solution probably will not need to
change. As the information world is constantly changing so to are the
“locks” we need to put in place. So in the information world we
probably have to do more maintenance of our locks. We have to stay up on
the latest locks available. If somebody in the physical world could design
a universal key that would open the locks on all doors that would cause a
problem. That kind of thing is possible in the information world. In
either world we can go to extremes to protect ourselves but it comes down to a
few simple questions. What would anybody want with my information or me?
Based on the answer to that what will it take to make me feel (that word again)
safe? Then, do it and sleep well. I look forward to exploring this
issue, as there are many neat things ahead in computer security.
Encryption and authentication are big issues. Authentication can happen by
passwords as most of us are used to now, but soon there will be affordable
devices for physical authentication. This will hit our world in many ways.
It is hard to imagine a safer gun but imagine a gun that will only fire for
somebody with the correct fingerprint. That is a kind of non-computer
related example but it is a technology example and will get the ideas flowing
anyway. We must and will improve security on all computing devices or
nobody will have the confidence to use them in the real world as I am
suggesting. Another issue for a future article relates to the importance
of the data you have in your company. Basically what do you do if disaster
hits. There are many sources for disaster and I will be trying to
stimulate some thought, not to bring excessive worry but so that you can be
ready when it happens. There is only one thing to be sure of, it will
happen.
Hopefully the last issue
doesn’t make you worry too much because if you are prepared you really don’t
have to. It goes back to my first topic of education. It is
important to become actively involved in your acquiring of knowledge. The
articles I have planned to write I hope will help in that. They will
hopefully help you to learn something you didn’t know, or maybe think about
something you hadn’t thought and I really hope they will make you search for
more information.
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